曾經的夢想~~貨櫃屋

從小一直到大，隨著經濟的蓬勃發展，房子一直在漲價，記得大學時就在想，一棟房子那麼貴，那幹嘛買房?
買一塊地，就搞得貨櫃屋就好啦~也不用很多的成本，也不會將自己壓得很累。
希望有一點我可以實現~~嘿嘿

這個跟我想像中的很類似，所就隨手拍了下來

LiDAR(Light Detection and Ranging)

這讓我想起在2008年交通大學史天元教授在東沙群島執行水透光達實驗，利用機載雷達探測海底地形的實驗。

pulses of light travel to the ground. They return and are detected by the sensor giving therange (a variable distance) to the Earth. This is how LiDAR earned its name – Light Detection and Ranging.

看似簡單原理，卻有許多技術必須突破，包含多次的反射、雷達光速強度、反射點的分類等等。

 

 

 

 

 

LiDAR data is a rare, precious GIS resource

From ground to air, explore the types of LiDAR systems

1. Profiling LiDAR was the first type of Light Detection and Ranging used in the 1980s for single line features such as power lines. Profiling LiDAR sends out an individual pulse in one line. It measures height along a single transect with a fixed Nadir angle.

2. Small Footprint LiDAR is what we use today. Small-footprint LiDAR scans at about 20 degrees moving backwards and forwards (scan angle). If it goes beyond 20 degrees, the LiDAR instrument may start seeing the sides of trees instead of straight down.

Two types of LIDAR are topographic and bathymetric:
i. Topographic LIDAR maps the land typically using near-infrared light.
ii. Bathymetric LiDAR uses water-penetrating green light to measure seafloor and riverbed elevations.

3. Large Footprint LiDAR uses full waveforms and averages LiDAR returns in 20m footprints. But it’s very difficult to get terrain from large footprint LiDAR because you get a pulse return based on a larger area which could be sloping. There are generally less applications for large footprint LiDAR. Only SLICER (Scanning Lidar Imager of Canopies by Echo Recovery) and LVIS (Laser Vegetation Imaging Sensor), both built by NASA and are experimental.

4. Ground-based LiDAR sits on a tripod and scans the hemisphere. Ground-based LiDAR is good for scanning buildings. It’s used in geology, forestry, heritage preservation and construction applications.

水土保持局監控雨量站點加權係數研究

現行做法如下：

1. 10分鐘、時雨量、3小時、6小時，及24小時雨量係指以目前時間往前推一定時間累積降雨。
2. 雨場分割ETR1：係指同一雨場，自降雨開始至目前之累積雨量（不作任何拆減）；且雨場分別之標準係以 6 小時內總雨量小於 4mm 時作為雨場結束點。
3. 前期降雨ETR2：即有效累積雨量，其計算方式如下：
   
4. 警戒說明:
5. • 已發布紅色警戒
   • 已發布黃色警戒
   • 接近紅色警戒(有效累積雨量逾土石流警戒值之70%)
   • 達黃色警戒發布標準(有效累積雨量+預測雨量大於土石流警戒值且目前有效累積雨量逾土石流警戒值之30%(警戒值<300)、40%(警戒值>=400))
6. 頻率年資料說明
   • ★:逾50年雨量資料(水土保持工程採用50年之重現期距規劃設計)
   • ★★:逾200年雨量資料(水土保持工程採用50年之重現期距規劃設計)

警戒值動態調整：

1. ＊一級調整 3hr累積雨量>=200mm (原警戒值400mm以下,調降100mm；原警戒值450mm以上,調降150mm)
2. ＃二級調整 3hr累積雨量>=150mm (原警戒值400mm以下,調降50mm；原警戒值450mm以上,調降100mm)
3. ＠三級調整 2hr累積雨量>=100mm (原警戒值400mm以下,調降50mm；原警戒值450mm以上,維持不變)

 

未來研究方向，將針對其加權係數稍作調整，以更符合實際發生情況。

20160604鋒面系統分析

分享幾張作品

目前還在做前端及後端優化工作，初步成品請大家多多指教了

Can youreally tell if a kid is lying?

其實我很喜歡幽默風趣的簡報，應該說誰不喜歡

往往在公務機關的簡報，都是"硬梆梆"的…@@上禮拜為工程處的同仁實施105年的教育訓練，講述有關氣象預報與防災，換一個比較風趣的方式來講述，也引起很大的共鳴，至少大家願意聽你的分享。

接下來就進入主題吧，這次挑選的主題是有關我們對小孩說謊這件事情的認知，相信大家小時候肯定有說謊的經驗，感覺很刺激、很害怕被發現、內心的掙扎...如文中開門見山就提到的成年人對於小孩說謊的認知，我覺得很有道哩，這幾句英語，我覺得也非常實用，可以視各種情境去變化

A.原講稿"Sums up very nicely three common beliefs we have about children and lying. One, children only come to tell lies after entering elementary school. Two, children are poor liars. We adults can easily detect their lies. And three, if children lie at a very young age, there must be some character flaws with them, and they are going to become pathological liars for life. Well, it turns out all of the three beliefs are wrong."

Sums up very nicely three common beliefs we have about children and lying.

One, ……

Two, ……

And three, ……

Well, it turns out all of the three beliefs are wrong.

這是很常用的句型我肯定要背一下的啦~~

 

B.原講稿"We found that regardless of gender, country, religion, at two years of age, 30 percent lie, 70 percent tell the truth about their transgression. At three years of age, 50 percent lie and 50 percent tell the truth. At four years of age, more than 80 percent lie. And after four years of age, most children lie. So as you can see, lying is really a typical part of development. And some children begin to tell lies as young as two years of age."

這也是幾個很棒的例句，都是我比較常用的句型

 

C.原講稿"In cooking, you need good ingredients to cook good food. And good lying requires two key ingredients. The first key ingredient is theory of mind, or the mind-reading ability. Mind reading is the ability to know that different people have different knowledge about the situation and the ability to differentiate between what I know and what you know. Mind reading is important for lying because the basis of lying is that I knowyou don't know what I know. Therefore, I can lie to you.

The second key ingredient for good lying is self-control. It is the ability to control your speech, your facial expression and your body language, so that you can tell a convincing lie. And we found that those young children who have more advanced mind-reading and self-control abilities tell lies earlier and are more sophisticated liars. As it turns out, these two abilities are also essential for all of us to function well in our society. In fact, deficits in mind-reading and self-control abilities are associated with serious developmental problems, such as ADHD and autism. So if you discover your two-year-old is telling his or her first lie, instead of being alarmed, you should celebrate.

這也是幾個很棒的例句，適合做為前導比喻使用

In cooking, you need good ingredients to cook good food.

Instead of being alarmed, you should celebrate.

上面這句話則適合在做結語時，使用一些反轉的語句，增加活潑度

我的愛人ㄟ~~~生日快樂喔

女兒生日，一起出去走走，拜訪老老師~

西元2016年、民國105年，給我自己一個期許

2015年到現在，算是我人生的低潮(低到不能再低了)，發生了很多事，有很多事情需要修正，但也希望，一切順利，祝我自己生日快樂

民用航空局105年第1季違規事件裁罰資訊（1/1/2016-3/31/2016）

名稱	發生時間	事件經過	違反法規及處分情形
立榮	104.10	航機空中回航事件	1. 機長違反依民用航空法第41條之1第2項所定之航空器飛航作業管理規則第20條第2項之規定，依據民用航空法第111條第2項第7款處以警告，並立即改善。 2. 副駕駛違反依民用航空法第41條之1第2項所定之航空器飛航作業管理規則第153條第2項之規定，依據民用航空法第111條第2項第7款處以警告，並立即改善。
長榮航太	104.10	航機空中回航事件	航空器維修工程師違反依民用航空法第23條之2第2項所定之航空器產品與其各類裝備及零組件維修廠設立檢定管理規則第26條第2項之規定，依據民用航空法第111條第2項第2款，處以停止執業1個月，並立即改善。
台灣虎航	104.10	飛航駕駛員逃生初始訓練疏失	公司違反依民用航空法第41條之1第2項所定之航空器飛航作業管理規則第21條第1項之規定，依據民用航空法第112條第2項第5款處以警告，並立即改善。
中華	104.01	發動機空中關車事件	1. 航空器維修工程師違反依民用航空法第23條之2第2項所定之航空產品與其各項裝備及零組件維修廠設立檢定管理規則第26條第2項之規定，依據民用航空法第111條第2項第2款，處以停止執業1個月，並立即改善。 2. 依據民用航空法第114條第1項第2款之規定，處以公司警告之處分。
台灣虎航	104.09	航機超出重心限制之外	1. 機長及副駕駛違反依民用航空法第41條之1第2項所定之航空器飛航作業管理規則第20條第2項之規定，依據民用航空法第111條第2項第7款及符合民用航空法第112條之1主動提報減輕條件，各處以警告，並立即改善之處分。 2. 公司違反依民用航空法第41條之1第2項所定之航空器飛航作業管理規則第20條第2項之規定，依據民用航空法第112條第2項第5款及符合民用航空法第112條之1主動提報減輕條件，處以警告，並立即改善。
長榮航太	104.04	發動機空中關車事件	航空器維修工程師2員違反依民用航空法第23條之2第2項所定之航空產品與其各項裝備及零組件維修廠設立檢定管理規則第26條第2項之規定，依據民用航空法第111條第2項第2款，各處以警告，並立即改善。

詳細條文說明：(以下為本人綜整，如有錯誤敬請指教)
1.航空器飛航作業管理規則第20條第2項之規定

航空器使用人應依有關之法規及程序訂定航務手冊或其他相關之手冊，報請民航局核准後，作為所有航空人員之工作指導，並適時修訂之。

航空器使用人及其所 屬 航 空 人 員 應 依 前 項 手 冊 之 各 項 規 定 實 施 所 負 之 職責，並不得逾越之。

2.航空器飛航作業管理規則第153條第2項之規定

第一百五十三條 航空器飛航組員之人數及組成，不得低於航務手冊或操作手冊及飛航手冊之規定。但得視機型、飛航性質及飛航時間增加或替換之。

飛航組員應依操作手冊及飛航手冊中各項規定、標準及限制操作航空器，不得逾越之。但有正當理由者，不在此限。

第一項之航務手冊及操作手冊有同一規範時，不得為不同之規定。

3.航空器維修工程師違反依民用航空法第23條之2第2項所定之航空器產品與其各類裝備及零組件維修廠設立檢定管理規則第26條第2項之規定

CANSO Global ATM Summit and 20th AGM

或許上帝用不同的方式愛你

完成第一階段~我的計畫書

經過3個多月的準備修改潤稿，終於今天完成計畫書了，下周一就要送出，希望一切順利

TWD67, TWD97, WGS84

目前台灣常用的座標系統分別是 TWD67、TWD97 和 WGS84，其中 WGS84 就是網路應用上常用的 GPS (lat, lon) 格式，說實在的對於座標系統我也不是專長，對於其背後運作，還真的是一知半解；在接觸防災領域後，加上近年來 ITS(智慧交通系統) 的開放服務越趨興盛，而台灣地區的資料慢慢地釋出，但第一個就是資料格式以及轉換的問題….一開始還真的沒有頭緒

但就我目前工作來說，最常使用的還是TWD97及WGS84，因為所使用的資料其實都有逐漸統整了，所以在格式轉換上，目前已經不是有太大問題…

WGS84，全稱World Geodetic System 1984，是為GPS全球定位系統使用而建立的坐標系統。通過遍布世界的衛星觀測站觀測到的坐標建立，其初次WGS84的精度為1-2m，在1994年1月2日，通過10個觀測站在GPS測量方法上改正，得到了WGS84（G730），G表示由GPS測量得到，730表示為GPS時間第730個周。

1996年，National Imagery and Mapping Agency (NIMA) 為美國國防部 (U.S.Department of Defense, DoD)做了一個新的坐標系統。這樣實現了新的WGS版本WGS（G873）。其因為加入了美國海軍天文台和北京站的改正，其東部方向加入了31-39cm 的改正。所有的其他坐標都有在1公寸之內的修正。   資料來源：Wiki

Datum 是由數學模式所計算出來的地球外形，可以準確而一致地標示出方位及區域，地表重要建物地標，經過詳實的量測後， 將此Datum精準的呈現出來，特定的地圖資料會標示經緯度，每張圖會有一Map Datum 以供參考， 而Map Datum通常會標列於地圖上方區塊，如果將GPS座標與地圖或其他參佐資料作一比較的話，GPS中的Map Datum應與地圖或其他參佐資料一致。

在台灣地區目前有虎子山與TWD97(WGS84)兩種大地座標系統。拿到地圖需注意下列兩項標識：

1.大地座標系統(MAP DATUN)

2.座標顯示方式(FORMAT)

調整GPS之設定後，在使用GPS時所得到的定位資料才能與台灣地區的地圖吻合。

台灣地區(本島)目前一般使用的座標系統有二：TWD67 與 TWD97 兩種

• TWD67：是依據 1967年之國際地球原子參數(Geodetic Reference System 1967，GRS67) 而定，以埔里虎子山為測量原點，這是目前地形圖所用的系統，由於地形圖上的說明區，並無很明確的註明系統名稱，只列出"平面控制：以南投縣埔里鎮虎子山三角點為原點"，因當時只有此系統在使用且無統一名稱，所以就常稱為: 虎子山系統( Hu-Tzu-Shan) 或 GRS67 (或TWD67)。
• TWD97：是依據 1980 年之國際地球原子參數(Geodetic Reference System 1980, GRS80) 而定，以埔里虎子山為測量原點，這是內政部為應用GPS重新檢測及建置全省三角點，而規範之座標系統，並且具體訂定名稱為：TWD97，而此系統與 WGS84系統之差異，只有"公分等級"的差異大小，在導航級GPS( 平均定位精度在1~15公尺者)中，是感覺不出來的，所以 我們在說明書上有所說明:....... TWD97的系統，此系統與WGS84 系統相近，只在用於精密測量時才有影響。

台灣目前國內間用的就是TWD97二度分帶，國際間用的就是WGS84經緯座標
單在台灣地區，TWD97的準確度會比WGS84來的高，TWD97的誤差大約1/10000，精準度已經相當高，
但缺點而言就是，此坐標只能使用於台灣地區，離島有各自的投影帶，
……

下一篇文章我就分享我的轉換程式原始碼~~~給我時間整理一下吧

這幾天的定量降水預報~自我校驗~成功

這周真的是連日的下雨，我在台北都壞發霉了，從我針對第一區養護工程處各工務段的定量降水預報來說，基本上是還蠻符合的，但其實定量降水預報現行的模式大多無法做出來的，尤其在台灣地形變化大，加上監控路段分別位於不同路段(背風迎風面、山谷山腰、臨海山區等等)，更增添困難度。

官方的預報只能針對地區性來預報，對於定點定量還是有其限制，這也是我們存在的價值，希望持續精進囉~~!!

Good Job

又一波強降水回波移進台灣地區囉

這次的降水將持續較長的時間，請大家務必注意安全囉；預計1000開始影響中部地區，1100開始影響北部地區。

台9線(石碇、坪林)、台9甲線(烏來)及台7線霞雲附近都有土石坍方，請注意安全

The magic ingredient that brings Pixar movies to life

When I was seven years old, some well-meaning adult asked me what I wanted to be when I grew up. Proudly, I said: "An artist." "No, you don't," he said, "You can't make a living being an artist!"

My little seven-year-old Picasso dreams were crushed. But I gathered myself, went off in search of a new dream, eventually settling on being a scientist, perhaps something like the next Albert Einstein.

利用Voronoi Polygons tool 製作台灣地區雨量站的多邊形法

Voronoi polygons is a systematic way to divide spaces into a number of regions using a set of points specified at the beginning.

For each point there will be a corresponding region that consists of the points closer to that points than any other. These regions are called voronoi cells.

Voronoi polygons are useful in that they allow mappers to visually see the distribution of points through shapes.

更多的定義可以參考Wiki click here.

2016年4月10日滯留鋒面天氣快報

昨晚發布了一篇有關周末因滯留鋒面影響，全台未來一周有雨天氣，這春天可以說是"春天後母面"，一切都變得很快，昨天一道不連續帶通過台灣，今天(9日)算是相對穩定的天氣，另一波滯留鋒面現在位於福建省、江西省附近，LLJ隨著在長江口附近的分裂高壓出海，有往南壓的趨勢，目前700hP-LLJ正位於日本南方洋面向西南延伸至雲貴一帶，850hPa-LLJ則分布在較內陸的地方，與過去相較有明顯的東移，但原本位於湖北湖南的低壓有明顯減弱，而在長江流域以南有一道顯著的不連續帶，但目前暖舌並不顯著；在這個不連續帶中，溫度的不連續相差約6度，隨著分裂高壓出海，南來的冷空氣會比較減弱，屆時對於此低壓的發展有限。

2016年4月9日周末天氣預報

這個周末我想真的不太平靜，因為明後天短暫的好天氣，又將再轉變成陰雨綿綿的日子了。

首先我想大家在媒體上大概都可以知道"本周日開始全島有雨，持續到下周四"，這個標題我想也看很多了。

接著我就先向大家報告一下，以目前氣流場的圖來看(左上圖為850hPa高空圖、右上圖為700hPa高空圖)，再進底層有一部連續代在台灣東北部外海，低壓系統正在華南江西省、福建一帶，目前來看，這個低壓勢力其實沒有太大的變化，隨著太平洋副高勢力東退，此低壓也會緩慢向東移出；在地面圖的部分(左下角)，有一個比較微弱的分裂高壓於渤海出海，將北方較冷的空氣往南帶到台灣地區，所以目前北部地區也有感覺些微的溫度降低的情況。

開始Coding得日子吧~with QGIS

GIS的應用目前可以說是越來越廣泛，但單純的圖並不具任何意義的，而是把正確的資訊透過圖像的方式表達，才可以達到。

在玩了QGIS後，發現功能之強大，但還是必須學會Coding

如此一來才可以發揮真正的效用，這裡與大家一起分享有關GIS Coding的教學網站囉。重點還是免費的ㄟ

https://www.udacity.com/course/programming-foundations-with-python--ud036

How life is organized on earth?

Reimagine how life is organized on earth. Think of the planet like a human body that we inhabit. The skeleton is the transportation system of roads and railways, bridges and tunnels, air and seaports that enable our mobility across the continents.
The vascular system that powers the body are the oil and gas pipelines and electricity grids. that distribute energy.
And the nervous system of communications is the Internet cables, satellites, cellular networks and data centers that allow us to share information.
這就像這次演講開門見山的指出
How life is organized on earth?
我們將視野放大到整個地球村的概念，其實早在20世紀就已經有地球村的概念被提出，只是當時的基礎建設不完善，甚至航空業一直到二戰結束才逐漸迅速發展，甚至到2004年才開中美、日美的佈局。台灣在民國76年開始著手天空開放政策，著手修改民用航空法，促進國內航空市場的自由化。一直到2009年兩開包機開放，2011年台日航約生效。
雖然在六十年代初期國際能源危機和與航空業有競爭關係的中山高速公路通車，卻依然動搖不了台灣民航事業的需求。事實上，到了民國七十年代中期，航空業者也期望政府能解除對民航事業的限制，讓航空業有較自由的發展空間，這也迫使政府不得不做出因應。
<<好像有點離題了~再回到這次的演講吧>>

本周天氣快報ㄟ

這禮拜受到太平洋附帶高壓系統的壟罩影響，都是屬於一個炎熱天天氣，白天就像夏天一樣~熱熱熱；晚上氣溫偏涼。

周末另一低壓帶通過台灣北部外海，北部地區為多雲轉局部短暫雨天氣，宜蘭山區有局部性降水，蘇澳、南澳有局部性降水

你所愛的GIS

地理資訊系統（Geographic Information System，GIS）是一門綜合性學科，結合地理學與地圖學，已經廣泛的應用在不同的領域，是用於輸入、存儲、查詢、分析和顯示地理數據的計算機系統

GIS屬於資訊系統的一類，不同在於它能運作和處理地理參照數據。地理參照數據描述地球表面（包括大氣層和較淺的地表下空間）空間要素的位置和屬性，在GIS中的兩種地理數據成分：空間數據，與空間要素幾何特性有關；屬性數據，提供空間要素的資訊。

地理資訊系統與全球定位系統、遙感系統合稱3S系統。

<<以上資料來自維基百科>>

近年來政府資訊開放，部論是不是專業工作者都可以輕易取用，我目前也正在研究有管台灣降雨事件與GIS的應用領域。

剛剛在ESRI上看到一個活動<<Esri Storytelling with Maps Contest>>，非常有趣，大家可以上去試試喔，分享自己的故事，拿大獎啦

快來看看說明吧

一直很喜歡TED的演講舞台，與你一起分享

接下來我預計每天一篇演講，並與大家分享，內容的語句、單字等等，希望大家會喜歡

 

Today Topic：The surprising habits of original thinkers

Adam Grant

 

Seven years ago, a student came to me and asked me to invest in his company. He said, "I'm working with three friends, and we're going to try to disrupt an industry by selling stuff online." And I said, "OK, you guys spent the whole summer on this, right?" "No, we all took internships just in case it doesn't work out." "All right, but you're going to go in full time once you graduate." "Not exactly. We've all lined up backup jobs." Six months go by, it's the day before the company launches, and there is still not a functioning website. "You guys realize, the entire company is a website. That's literally all it is." So I obviously declined to invest.

00:52And they ended up naming the company Warby Parker.

00:54(Laughter) They sell glasses online. They were recently recognized as the world's most innovative company and valued at over a billion dollars. And now? My wife handles our investments. Why was I so wrong?

01:12To find out, I've been studying people that I come to call "originals." Originals are nonconformists, people who not only have new ideas but take action to champion them. They are people who stand out and speak up. Originals drive creativity and change in the world. They're the people you want to bet on. And they look nothing like I expected. I want to show you today three things I've learned about recognizing originals and becoming a little bit more like them.

01:41So the first reason that I passed on Warby Parker was they were really slow getting off the ground. Now, you are all intimately familiar with the mind of a procrastinator. Well, I have a confession for you. I'm the opposite. I'm a precrastinator. Yes, that's an actual term. You know that panic you feel a few hours before a big deadline when you haven't done anything yet. I just feel that a few months ahead of time.

02:08(Laughter)

02:10So this started early: when I was a kid, I took Nintendo games very seriously. I would wake up at 5am,start playing and not stop until I had mastered them. Eventually it got so out of hand that a local newspaper came and did a story on the dark side of Nintendo, starring me.

02:30(Laughter)

02:33(Applause)

02:40Since then, I have traded hair for teeth.

02:43(Laughter)

02:48But this served me well in college, because I finished my senior thesis four months before the deadline.And I was proud of that, until a few years ago. I had a student named Jihae, who came to me and said, "I have my most creative ideas when I'm procrastinating." And I was like, "That's cute, where are the four papers you owe me?"

03:11(Laughter)

03:12No, she was one of our most creative students, and as an organizational psychologist, this is the kind of idea that I test. So I challenged her to get some data. She goes into a bunch of companies. She has people fill out surveys about how often they procrastinate. Then she gets their bosses to rate how creative and innovative they are. And sure enough, the precrastinators like me, who rush in and do everything early are rated as less creative than people who procrastinate moderately. So I want to know what happens to the chronic procrastinators. She was like, "I don't know. They didn't fill out my survey."

03:45(Laughter)

03:48No, here are our results. You actually do see that the people who wait until the last minute are so busy goofing off that they don't have any new ideas. And on the flip side, the people who race in are in such a frenzy of anxiety that they don't have original thoughts either. There's a sweet spot where originals seem to live. Why is this? Maybe original people just have bad work habits. Maybe procrastinating does not cause creativity.

04:21To find out, we designed some experiments. We asked people to generate new business ideas, and then we get independent readers to evaluate how creative and useful they are. And some of them are asked to do the task right away. Others we randomly assign to procrastinate by dangling Minesweeper in front of them for either five or 10 minutes. And sure enough, the moderate procrastinators are 16 percent more creative than the other two groups. Now, Minesweeper is awesome, but it's not the driver of the effect,because if you play the game first before you learn about the task, there's no creativity boost. It's only when you're told that you're going to be working on this problem, and then you start procrastinating, but the task is still active in the back of your mind, that you start to incubate. Procrastination gives you time to consider divergent ideas, to think in nonlinear ways, to make unexpected leaps.

05:15So just as we were finishing these experiments, I was starting to write a book about originals, and I thought, "This is the perfect time to teach myself to procrastinate, while writing a chapter on procrastination." So I metaprocrastinated, and like any self-respecting precrastinator, I woke up early the next morning and I made a to-do list with steps on how to procrastinate.

05:38(Laughter)

05:42And then I worked diligently toward my goal of not making progress toward my goal. I started writing the procrastination chapter, and one day -- I was halfway through -- I literally put it away in mid-sentence for months. It was agony. But when I came back to it, I had all sorts of new ideas. As Aaron Sorkin put it,"You call it procrastinating. I call it thinking." And along the way I discovered that a lot of great originals in history were procrastinators. Take Leonardo da Vinci. He toiled on and off for 16 years on the Mona Lisa.He felt like a failure. He wrote as much in his journal. But some of the diversions he took in opticstransformed the way that he modeled light and made him into a much better painter. What about Martin Luther King, Jr.? The night before the biggest speech of his life, the March on Washington, he was up past 3am, rewriting it. He's sitting in the audience waiting for his turn to go onstage, and he is still scribbling notes and crossing out lines. When he gets onstage, 11 minutes in, he leaves his prepared remarks to utter four words that changed the course of history: "I have a dream." That was not in the script. By delaying the task of finalizing the speech until the very last minute, he left himself open to the widest range of possible ideas. And because the text wasn't set in stone, he had freedom to improvise.

07:19Procrastinating is a vice when it comes to productivity, but it can be a virtue for creativity. What you see with a lot of great originals is that they are quick to start but they're slow to finish. And this is what I missed with Warby Parker. When they were dragging their heels for six months, I looked at them and said, "You know, a lot of other companies are starting to sell glasses online." They missed the first-mover advantage. But what I didn't realize was they were spending all that time trying to figure out how to get people to be comfortable ordering glasses online. And it turns out the first-mover advantage is mostly a myth. Look at a classic study of over 50 product categories, comparing the first movers who created the market with the improvers who introduced something different and better. What you see is that the first movers had a failure rate of 47 percent, compared with only 8 percent for the improvers. Look at Facebook, waiting to build a social network until after Myspace and Friendster. Look at Google, waiting for years after Altavista and Yahoo. It's much easier to improve on somebody else's idea than it is to create something new from scratch. So the lesson I learned is that to be original you don't have to be first. You just have to be different and better.

08:37But that wasn't the only reason I passed on Warby Parker. They were also full of doubts. They had backup plans lined up, and that made me doubt that they had the courage to be original, because I expected that originals would look something like this.

08:54(Laughter)

08:57Now, on the surface, a lot of original people look confident, but behind the scenes, they feel the same fear and doubt that the rest of us do. They just manage it differently. Let me show you: this is a depictionof how the creative process works for most of us.

09:15(Laughter)

09:19Now, in my research, I discovered there are two different kinds of doubt. There's self-doubt and idea doubt. Self-doubt is paralyzing. It leads you to freeze. But idea doubt is energizing. It motivates you to test, to experiment, to refine, just like MLK did. And so the key to being original is just a simple thing of avoiding the leap from step three to step four. Instead of saying, "I'm crap," you say, "The first few drafts are always crap, and I'm just not there yet." So how do you get there? Well, there's a clue, it turns out, in the Internet browser that you use. We can predict your job performance and your commitment just by knowing what web browser you use. Now, some of you are not going to like the results of this study --

10:05(Laughter)

10:07But there is good evidence that Firefox and Chrome users significantly outperform Internet Explorer and Safari users. Yes.

10:16(Applause)

10:18They also stay in their jobs 15 percent longer, by the way. Why? It's not a technical advantage. The four browser groups on average have similar typing speed and they also have similar levels of computer knowledge. It's about how you got the browser. Because if you use Internet Explorer or Safari, those came preinstalled on your computer, and you accepted the default option that was handed to you. If you wanted Firefox or Chrome, you had to doubt the default and ask, is there a different option out there, and then be a little resourceful and download a new browser. So people hear about this study and they're like, "Great, if I want to get better at my job, I just need to upgrade my browser?"

10:56(Laughter)

10:57No, it's about being the kind of person who takes the initiative to doubt the default and look for a better option. And if you do that well, you will open yourself up to the opposite of déjà vu. There's a name for it. It's called vuja de.

11:12(Laughter)

11:15Vuja de is when you look at something you've seen many times before and all of a sudden see it with fresh eyes. It's a screenwriter who looks at a movie script that can't get the green light for more than half a century. In every past version, the main character has been an evil queen. But Jennifer Lee starts to question whether that makes sense. She rewrites the first act, reinvents the villain as a tortured hero and Frozen becomes the most successful animated movie ever. So there's a simple message from this story.When you feel doubt, don't let it go.

11:49(Laughter)

11:52What about fear? Originals feel fear, too. They're afraid of failing, but what sets them apart from the rest of us is that they're even more afraid of failing to try. They know you can fail by starting a business that goes bankrupt or by failing to start a business at all. They know that in the long run, our biggest regrets are not our actions but our inactions. The things we wish we could redo, if you look at the science, are the chances not taken.

12:20Elon Musk told me recently, he didn't expect Tesla to succeed. He was sure the first few SpaceX launches would fail to make it to orbit, let alone get back, but it was too important not to try. And for so many of us, when we have an important idea, we don't bother to try. But I have some good news for you.You are not going to get judged on your bad ideas. A lot of people think they will. If you look across industries and ask people about their biggest idea, their most important suggestion, 85 percent of them stayed silent instead of speaking up. They were afraid of embarrassing themselves, of looking stupid. But guess what? Originals have lots and lots of bad ideas, tons of them, in fact. Take the guy who invented this. Do you care that he came up with a talking doll so creepy that it scared not only kids but adults, too? No. You celebrate Thomas Edison for pioneering the light bulb.

13:17(Laughter)

13:19If you look across fields, the greatest originals are the ones who fail the most, because they're the ones who try the most. Take classical composers, the best of the best. Why do some of them get more pages in encyclopedias than others and also have their compositions rerecorded more times? One of the best predictors is the sheer volume of compositions that they generate. The more output you churn out, the more variety you get and the better your chances of stumbling on something truly original. Even the three icons of classical music -- Bach, Beethoven, Mozart -- had to generate hundreds and hundreds of compositions to come up with a much smaller number of masterpieces. Now, you may be wondering,how did this guy become great without doing a whole lot? I don't know how Wagner pulled that off. But for most of us, if we want to be more original, we have to generate more ideas.

14:15The Warby Parker founders, when they were trying to name their company, they needed something sophisticated, unique, with no negative associations to build a retail brand, and they tested over 2,000 possibilities before they finally put together Warby and Parker. So if you put all this together, what you see is that originals are not that different from the rest of us. They feel fear and doubt. They procrastinate.They have bad ideas. And sometimes, it's not in spite of those qualities but because of them that they succeed.

14:47So when you see those things, don't make the same mistake I did. Don't write them off. And when that's you, don't count yourself out either. Know that being quick to start but slow to finish can boost your creativity, that you can motivate yourself by doubting your ideas and embracing the fear of failing to try,and that you need a lot of bad ideas in order to get a few good ones.

15:07Look, being original is not easy, but I have no doubt about this: it's the best way to improve the world around us.

15:15Thank you.

15:16(Applause)

女兒~我的前世情人

著手我的研究計畫

今年有好多考試需要準備，有很多研究計畫要進行

希望一切順利~謝謝老婆、小孩的支持

清明4天連假，天氣快報

這幾天，天氣基本上是相對穩定的，今天北部地區也逐漸轉為多雲天氣，中部以南、東半部地區都有陽光露臉。

此次連假基本上天氣也是數與比較穩定且悶熱的天氣型態，除新竹以北及花蓮宜蘭有局部降水外，其餘全台都是多雲到晴的天氣。也預估在下周3~4會以一道鋒面系統東移，影響台灣地區。

目前已經是春季的天氣型態，變化非常快速，也請大家持續關注WorksBen

What is the difference between DEM, DSM and DTM?

A DEM is a 'bare earth' elevation model, unmodified from its original data source (such as lidar, ifsar, or an autocorrelated photogrammetric surface) which is supposedly free of vegetation, buildings, and other 'non ground' objects.

 

自己研究了QGIS

發現很多可以嘗試的，尤其在國土防災方面，目前也都自己製作，一方面也符合自己要的，也滿足給其他人觀看的需求

 

好天氣只到下午，台中以北晚間持續性降水，中部以南局部性降水

 

 

目前的觀測資料顯示，在大陸福建地區因為滯留鋒面影響，已經出現短時強降水，隨著大陸冷高壓勢力持續南壓，

首先在台灣到福建、廣東(西)，有發展較厚實的雲系，持續朝東北東方向台灣北部地區移動，高層風場來看強風軸還在福建內地，預計將於下午逐漸移出，這也會為台灣帶來較充沛的水氣，加上地面高壓南壓，在台灣北部上空會有明顯的風切變，而有顯著的不穩定帶，但由於環境場還是屬於高空脊線壟罩台灣，所以在綜合評估後，提出下列預報：

一、華南水氣將於午後逐漸移進台灣地區，晚間台中以北出現持續性降水；台中以南局部性降水

二、入夜後，北部及宜蘭地區降水轉趨顯著，預報雨量40~60mm。

三、晚間到明天，都將持續出現雨勢，新北以復興山區、翡翠、石門集水區、宜蘭山區降雨顯著。

以上分析，僅供參考

2015天然災害紀實

下面網址可以參考

• 2015年04月尼泊爾地震災害分析
• 2015年04月23日阿富汗Jerow-Bala村融雪引發之山崩事件探討
• 2015年05月18日哥倫比亞薩爾加洪災事件探討
• 2015年05月23日美國德州休斯頓都市洪災事件探討
• 2015年06月01日中國長江客輪翻覆報導
• 2015年06月印度與巴基斯坦熱浪事件分析報導
• 2014-2015年乾旱事件概述
• 2015年09月09日日本颱風造成鬼怒川潰堤災害報導
• 2015年10月01日瓜地馬拉康布雷二村崩塌事件分析
• 2015年美國加州乾旱事件探討

另外可以下載NCDR綜整台灣去年災害的報告

2015蘇迪勒颱風，公路致災簡圖

2015蘇迪勒颱風，公路致災簡圖

2016年3月16日公路總局第一區養護工程處基隆工務段成立，管轄路段異動

2016年3月16日公路總局第一區養護工程處基隆工務段成立，管轄路段異動，附件可以參考連結

 

目前正著手製作GIS的Shp數位建檔..加油吧!!

我的計劃書~呼之欲出阿~~

GIS Aids Disaster Relief 地理資訊系統對於防災的輔助

GIS is used in many phases of disaster management, starting with planning before an event happens. Disaster relief involves the response phase of disaster management. GIS and GIS professionals can assist immediately by helping decision makers understand the scope of the damage and identify locations where people may be trapped or injured or require medical support and rescue. Analyzing critical infrastructure (facilities essential for the operation and sustainability of health services, food services, and government operations) that is or could be damaged or destroyed is essential to restoring vital services and government operations.
Decision makers can assign response resources to the highest life safety and facility repair priorities. Another critical mission that geospatial technology supports is emergency supply chain management.

更新公路總局里程樁號

2013/08/19
(1)修正台3線路線、樁號(臺北市)；
(2)台5乙線刪除(解編)；
(3)更新台7線路線及里程樁號(全線)；
(4)台9乙線(原路線解編，已更換路線，里程樁號尚未更新)；
(5)台14丁路線更新，里程樁號尚未更新(0K至約3K)；
(6)台30線路線及里程樁號更新(玉里_忠孝路)。
7.2014/04/07，
(1)台9線里程樁號更新，(218K~235K+500、243K+500~245K、268K~273K)
(2)台14丁線里程樁號更新，(0K~10K+169)。
7.2014/7/16
(1)台9甲線原雙連埤至宜蘭路段改編為台7丁線。
(2)台16線原合流坪至萬榮路段(未開闢)解編；原萬榮至鳳林路段解編為地方道路。
(3)台21線原塔塔加至達卡努瓦路段(未開闢)解編；原達卡努瓦至林園路段改編為台29線。

檔案下載

著手我的研究計畫

目前研究方向放在GIS的開發，GIS在防災上的運用，雖然目前各局部會都有自己的開放平台，但現在要為公司建立一個整合性的平台，希望一切順利囉

水土保持局台中分局>>>整體性治山防災（中長程）計畫 102至105年度（第二期）

一、計畫目標

本期計畫延續第一期計畫目標，持續結合「治山」、「防災」、「保育」及「永續」等四個策略目標，期達成保育水土資源、涵養水源、減免災害、促進土地合理利用、增進國民福祉等主要目標，並戮力朝向土石流災害傷亡趨近於零及國土永續經營之願景。

二、計畫主要辦理工作項目

本計畫持續以軟體防災結合硬體減災，強化土石流監測及防災，並加速辦理各項治山防災工作，以有效減輕災害規模，各分項子計畫分述如下：

公路總局第一區養護工程處"基隆工務段"成立

在今年2月通過的案子，公路總局第一區養護工程處"基隆工務段"正式於3月4日成立，16日新官上任，未來要提供的天氣預報訊息，又多了一個工務段。

目前公路總局第一區養護工程處下轄6個工務段：景美工務段、中和工務段、復興工務段、基隆工務段、中壢工務段、新竹工務段，涵蓋整個大台北地區，在上周的春雷第一響後，也表示台灣地區即將進入春雨的氣候特徵。

台灣位於溫帶與熱帶交綏之副熱帶地區，台灣地形地貌複雜，年雨量相當豐沛，加上近年來極端天候的變異，尤其在北部地區，容易受到從大陸移出的短槽影響，發生短時較大雨勢。

台灣一年之中以梅雨期和颱風期的降雨最多，尤其是中、南部，這兩類型的降雨是全年最主要的降雨來源。每年冬季和春季由於雨量非常少，稱為乾季。當梅雨及颱風雨不顯著時，春雨便顯得格外重要。如果前一年的颱風雨不足，而且沒有春雨適時補充的話，那麼很容易會形成乾旱，不但嚴重影響一期稻作的秧期，連工業及民生用水都有缺乏之虞，此時，春雨便成了台灣一項非常重要的氣候條件了。反之，若前一年雨量充足卻又春雨綿綿，甚至發生大雨或豪雨，那麼春雨便成了不良的災害了。

 

春天從何時起算呢？

天文學：以春分（三月廿一日）、夏至（六月廿一日）、秋分（九月廿三日）及冬至（十二月廿二日）作為四季的開始。

中國古籍：大多以二十四節氣中的立春（二月四日）、立夏（五月六日）、立秋（八月八日）及立冬（十一月八日）作為四季的開始。

民間習慣：以農曆1至3月為春天、4至6月為夏天、7至9月為秋天、10至12月為冬天。

以上三種四季的分法在氣候統計上皆有不便，為了配合溫度的變化情形及氣候統計的方便性，一般多採陽曆3至5月為春天、6至8月為夏天、9至11月為秋天、12至2月為冬天。

 

"新工務段異動資料"

基隆工務段

景美工務段

中和工務段

 

順道一提，未來我要分享的文件或簡報都將連結到我的Office online，一方面也方便大家下載，也希望大家可以註明引用出處。

 

今晚北部地區即將出現大雨~

目前發展厚實的雲系，已經到台灣海峽。持續緩慢向台灣靠近，預計在2小時，台灣北部即將大雨壟罩

在外朋友請注意安全了，雨勢在明天早上會逐漸趨緩，但還是持續性下雨，要記得攜帶雨具ㄟ